The Time chain in Croatian companies
Durdica Fuckan,
Professor, PhD, Faculty of Economics Zagreb (Graduate School of Economics and Business) (10000
Zagreb Trg J.F. Kennedy-a 6, Croatia; e-mail: dfuchkan@efzg.hr)
Janko Tintor,
Professor, PhD, Faculty of Economics Zagreb (10000 Zagreb Trg J.F. Kennedy-a 6, Croatia)
Paola Suman
BSc in Economics, Teaching Assistant (10000 Zagreb Trg J.F. Kennedy-a 6, Croatia)
Аннотация. Исследуются подходы к планированию и технологиям планирования хорватских компаний. Предполагается, что существует взаимосвязь между подходами к планированию и технологиям планирования с одной стороны, и определенными особенностями компании и ее окружающей среды с другой. Эта взаимосвязь влечет за собой две гипотезы: 1) любое изменение в определенных особенностях компании и в окружающей среде компании требует изменения в подходах к планированию и технологиям планирования; 2) успех планирования может быть оценен на основе достигнутого баланса между технологиями и условиями ведения торговли, как показано в отношениях между компанией и ее окружающей средой.
Abstract. This research into approaches to planning and planning technologies of Croatian companies started with the underlying assumption that there is an interrelation between approaches to planning and planning technologies on the one hand, and the specific features of a company and its environment on the other. This interrelation entails two hypotheses: 1) any change in the specific features of a company and in the company's environment requires a change in approaches to planning and in planning technologies; 2) the success of planning can be evaluated on the basis of the achieved balance between the technologies and the conditions of doing business as seen in the relations between a company and its environment.
Ключевые слова: технологии планирования, компании Хорватии
Keywords: planning technologies, Croatian companies
1. Introduction to the problem
research methods to be applied are thus provided. The aims of the research are to evaluate the ability of Croatian companies to direct long-term successful business operations.
In accordance with the problem thus structured, the current research first attempts to define an analytical framework, and then define the research procedure consistent with the framework. In this way, the methodological prerequisites and the
Methodological prerequisites have been found in the systemic approach and in the networked method of thinking in which planning implies
a loop of feedback or a reversible interaction of the past, present, and future, which we term "the time chain". The method used for preliminary research was a survey of the kinds and characteristics of the applied technologies of planning.
The structure and findings of the research are presented in accordance with the selected starting point and the established structure of the problem under review.
2. The time chain and the technologies of planning
1.1. Complexity and complicacy
The underlying problem of the time chain is the problem of linking different states into a single process of survival through development, or the problem of coping with complexities. By complexity we mean the possibility of real systems to assume a huge number of different states. This is quantified and measured through variety, which shows a number of possible and different states of a system, which depends on the number and diversity of the elements, on the possible ways of linking into an effective whole, and on the number of possible outcomes. Complexity is caused by differences in behaviour within a common activity and pertains to organic and social systems (Ashby, W.R / Hayek, F.A.v., Malik, F, Espejo, R.). It differs from complicacy in the way that complexity can be comprehended and managed. Differentiation of complex and complicated systems is seen in the possibility of comprehending them and in the approach to this.
A model of such differentiation is found in the concept of the "space (scope) of the problem". The approach to this concept was explained by Ron Howard at a meeting of a group of scientists from different fields; they considered the problem of decisionmaking in conditions of uncertainty, dynamics and complexity. Conditions are understood as dimensions and each of the three dimensions is quali-
tatively represented within the range of extreme characteristics: morphology is expressed through a number of linked variables, i.e. with several or many; certainty of structure is denoted determined and probable; time or process activity is denoted by equal, constant, or variable. Through a combination of the extreme values of certain dimensions, eight specific states are constituted.
The problem is contained in the following question: what is the nature of the effect or the outcome, and what approach should be taken in comprehending and bringing decisions? The nature of the effect can be understood as an essential characteristic of the whole, as an original property of the system. The way of comprehending is linked to it or conditioned by it.
Determinirana ^ ^ Stohasti cna
Struktura
Sl. 1. 6 Klasifikacija problema spoznavanja i odlucivanja
The entirety of the diagram or the space of consideration is the problem of the outcome which is a consequence of developing the characteristics of the entire system and this conditions the position of the system in the environment. This is a dimension of the function which defines the result of the process and is synonymous with the output, but also with the outcome or the consequence. It is the result of the interactions of different states of dimensions and it generates different characteristics, i.e. the
outcome and the position. At the same time, possibilities of comprehension and influence are determined by it.
If the function, role or dimension of the outcome are observed, then definiteness, and with it certainty of the outcome, can be seen in points 1, 2, 4 and 7. In all other points the problem of different characteristics arises: the structure is probable and is established stochastically. Comparison shows that each of these points has a probable structure, but also that at least one of the other components has the characteristics of constancy (constancy of the process in 3 and 6, or constancy or a small number of components in 3 and 5). Thus, it emerges that the basic problem is probability and it is solved through the known procedures.
In this context, point 7 can be described as a complicated dynamic system, since changes have occurred in the process due to the combination of numerous components or inputs on the one hand, and since the relation is determined by the effect on the other. Thus, the problem of effect, function or outcome appears in the form of dynamic problems, and the mentioned debate at the meeting of the scientists pointed to the formalised procedures for solving the problem of dynamics.
Field 8 remains. It is marked by both probability and dynamics, with a large number of components whose linking is also uncertain and complex, due to uncertainty and dynamics. "Our ability to deal with multiple uncertain variables in a dynamic surrounding is rather limited," states R.Howard in the mentioned discussion. The characteristics of point 8 - uncertainty, variability in the constituting and evolving of the processes and the complexity of the structure which is formed in several vital and different entities and thus forms a totality of a higher order - are all characteristics of the systems of a social level.
Comprehending such systems requires a different approach and a different application of the available methods. These systems should primarily
be comprehended as coherent totalities, and their totality is manifested as a network of reversible interactions. This statement has methodological implications since it requires that behaviour of the parts is explained through properties of the whole, and not that the perceived properties of the parts are used to explain the entire system. Although this methodological requirement presents a difficulty to an external factor and to the observer of the behaviour, the functioning and survival of the system on the social level is possible primarily because these systems possess the ability to perceive themselves, if only intuitively. The source of this self-perception is in the complexity of the structure of a complete system, which Forester generalised by saying that a dynamic system has the ability to perceive itself, which enables thinking and understanding, but the system has no possibility of testing its dynamics. Since it is not convenient to experiment in social systems, a special procedure is required for checking possible influences on a state of social organisations. Jay Forester established a system dynamics as a specific approach to testing the consequences of possible influences, while R.Howard advocates a system dynamics as an approach and as an iterative procedure for understanding complex dynamic systems which function in an uncertain environment. The iterativeness here implies decomposing and separating smaller wholes whose characteristics can be identified, formalised through calculus procedures and then composed and integrated into large aggregates and sub-systems, up to the level of a coherent totality.
2.2 The time chain
Complexity is closely linked to the process of the survival and development of any social system and its environment. It is manifested as the cross influencing of the system and the environment, their duration, manageability, expected and unexpected effects, main effects and marginal ones, known and
unknown effects and their efficiency. The complexity is caused by different possibilities of behaviour and by the acting of elements upon each other, and it pertains to organic and social systems (Ashby, W.R / Hayek, F.A.v. Malik, F, Espejo, R.). This is the process which is present in all systems, a
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